P. 14
Political Motives
The Motive Fallacy is so common in politics that serious policy debate is almost nonexistent. The announcement of a new policy is greeted, not with a discussion of its alleged merits, but with a flurry of speculation from journalists and political opponents regarding the politician’s motives for announcing it. He wants to appease the right wing of his party, or is trying to win favor in marginal rural states, or is bowing to the racist clamoring of the gutter press, or what-have-you. If you follow politics you will be familiar with the various motives standardly attributed to politicians.
And you will be familiar with the effect. Nothing need be said about whether the policy is likely to achieve its objective, or whether that objective is sensible, or anything else about the quality of the policy itself.
Policies are treated merely as tactical moves in the game of politics. They can get you into the lead or make you vulnerable to your opponents. But their likely effects outside the game—for example, on employment, educational standards, and so on—seem to be of not the least interest to anyone playing or commentating. Occasionally, a politician declares his desperation to free himself from this horrible game and “address the issues of real concern to the people of this country.” But the matter normally ends with this earnest plea. The promised issue-addressing never quite happens. And why should it? The declaration of (15) intent will do quite nicely on its own. We want our politicians to be serious about the issues, of course. But for pity’s sake, don’t drag us into all the boring details!
Journalists and politicians now devote their attention to investigating the possible causes rather than the likely effects of their opponents’ policies. If they can find a party donor or family friend who stands to benefit from the policy then they will have won the day. The policy is clearly rubbish.
It is, for example, a rare opponent of the 2003 American invasion of Iraq who does not enjoy speculating on President George W. Bush’s motivation. He wanted to finish his father’s work, steal Iraqi oil, or do the bidding of Jews who seek the removal of an enemy of Israel. It is assumed that once we are convinced of Bush’s low intent, we will be convinced that the invasion was wrong.
But Bush’s motives are irrelevant. He might have had the worst intentions that ever moved a leader to war…. Yet the invasion might be justified for all that. It might still liberate oppressed people and make the world safer. Good actions can be performed for bad reasons. Equally, bad actions can be well intended. Perhaps Bush really does want to liberate the Iraqi people and make the world safer. That intention does not alone make the invasion a good idea. Saddam’s tyranny may now be replaced by Shiite theocratic tyranny and the world I might become a more dangerous place.
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